Friday 24 February 2012

The Collapse of the Euro if it happens


The collapse of the Euro if it happens will be bad for Europe and for everyone at least in the interim. However, it plays squarely in the hands of emerging economies..and definitely signals the final shift towards China as the country sitting side by side with the US at the 'economic high table' surrounded by European countries armed with a proverbial economic begging bowl with India, Russia and Brazil with a wide grin as permanent invitees to economic power table. The collapse of the Euro on the hand could be the best thing for Europe as it will finally bring to end a misconceived economic experiment (Euro) without political integration. Europeans expected monetary union without political integration and will ...i.e the Euro is good in principle but I am suprised it lasted this long given the economic, social and political disparities that exist in the Euro Zone area and the wide EU. When this happen we shall see Old Europe i.e German ,the UK, France emerge less battered compared to Portugal, Spain, Greece, Italy, Albania, Croatia, Poland, etc..countries that did not join the Euro will definitely feel vindicated though not immune from the fallout. Scandinavian countries such as Sweden, Norway, Finland with the exception of Iceland (would need to revisit some economic data on Iceland and I would love to hear what Icelandic comrades think). ...the old alliances will resurface as European major economic powers fight for 'clean economic air to breath'. A whole new scramble for new alliances and resources will begin...expect the the full circle here..more like a dejavu or a worst case scenario a nightmare. The fall of the Euro will impact alot of things from immigration to political relations to financial rules to regulations. Here are some important questions: 1. Are African leaders and decision makers learning from what is happening in the Euro-zone given the fact that they have sounded the idea of a common currency? 2. What would be Africa's economic position post Euro i.e would Africa be affected and in what way? 3. What would be the position of the IMF and World bank post Euro given that alot effort to stem the contagion has the blessing of the European central bank (ECB), IMF and WB? 4. Would the failure of Euro go down in history as the spectacular failure of the IMF and World bank?

No comments: